As the investment journey of 2024 approaches its end, several renowned foreign institutions have recently released their global asset investment outlook for the coming year, predicting the global economic trend and the performance of asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and commodities. Some institutions believe that the global market will likely maintain a monetary easing policy next year, with the U.S. stock market possibly showing a more moderate upward trend; from the perspective of asset allocation, gold is the preferred asset to cope with inflation and geopolitical risks.

Regarding A-shares, many foreign giants believe that the package of policies introduced since September 24th has begun to show results, with both domestic demand and the real estate market showing signs of stabilization and recovery. With further policy efforts, the A-share market is expected to usher in a new round of profit growth cycles.

Global central banks are likely to maintain a monetary easing policy.

In September of this year, as the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range, the global market officially entered a rate-cutting cycle. Looking ahead to next year, many institutions believe that global central banks are likely to continue with a monetary easing policy.

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Goldman Sachs expects that emerging and developed market economies will both significantly cut interest rates by 2025. Over the next four quarters, the average interest rate level in developed market economies is expected to decrease by 116 basis points, with the eurozone and Canada's interest rate levels expected to decrease by 150 basis points, and the average interest rate level in emerging market economies is expected to decrease by 114 basis points.

Regarding the future global economic trend, UBS stated that the impact of inflation and interest rates over the past two years is fading, real income growth has reached the highest level in 20 years, credit growth is starting to rise, and there are signs of a shift in the real estate market. Nevertheless, it is expected that the global economic growth rate will slow by more than 0.5 percentage points over the next two years.

For the U.S. stock market, major Wall Street banks generally believe that the U.S. stock market will show a more moderate upward trend in 2025, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise slightly by 4.1% over the next four quarters, below the long-term average annual growth rate of 10%.

From the perspective of asset allocation, many institutions unanimously have gold assets.

Goldman Sachs listed long gold as a top trade in its 2025 commodity outlook, expecting the gold price to rise to $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, with the main factors driving the gold price increase including central bank demand, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and market safe-haven demand. Goldman Sachs believes that gold is the preferred asset to cope with inflation and geopolitical risks.

JPMorgan Chase expects that ETF inflows will drive up gold prices, approaching the bank's peak target of $2,850 per ounce for 2025. UBS stated that the demand for gold from central banks and the retail market remains strong as they seek to diversify their investment portfolios. Therefore, even if the upward trend slows down, gold will still be a winner among commodities.

China's economic fundamentals are stabilizing and recovering.

Since September 24th, the Chinese government has introduced a series of policy "combination punches." Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the national economic data for October. Many institutions believe that from an economic data perspective, the relevant policies have begun to show results, and the economic fundamentals show signs of stabilization and recovery.

Deutsche Bank maintains its forecast for China's economic growth of 5% in the fourth quarter. Deutsche Bank's Chief Economist for China, Xiong Yi, said in a report that the continuous efforts of the recent package of incremental policies have further stimulated domestic demand. If the current growth momentum continues to the end of the year, it is expected that there is still room for further improvement in China's economic growth rate.

In Xiong Yi's view, with the efforts of policies, the consumer market continues to recover, and consumer potential is further released. Among them, the sales of home appliances, furniture, and automobiles have increased significantly. In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month; the service industry production index increased by 6.3% year-on-year, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. In addition, the real estate market has stabilized, and a series of loose monetary and fiscal policies have further enhanced the vitality of the capital market. At the same time, the growth rate of industrial production and fixed asset investment in October was the same as the previous month. These signs indicate that, unlike in the past, China is fully stimulating the internal momentum of consumption and expanding domestic demand through multiple policy efforts.

BlackRock's Chief China Economist, Song Yu, believes that the support of policies in the short term is in line with market expectations, and in the long term, the sustainability of policy support is expected to exceed the general market expectations.

"At the same time, the PMI data for October shows signs of economic recovery, and upstream prices have also risen, and the policy effects have initially shown," said Song Yu.

Standing at the current point, Zhang Xiaomu, equity fund manager of Fidelity Fund, said that the "more forceful policies" that the market had been calling for have become a reality.

"Based on this prediction, I believe that China's economic recovery is certain, and in terms of rhythm, it is gradual and sustainable. If the policy measures in the previous several rounds of China's economic cycle bottomed out and rebounded with a strong counter-cyclical adjustment color, then this recovery will more reflect the characteristics of economic structural transformation, although counter-cyclical adjustment policies are still an important tool," said Zhang Xiaomu.

A-shares still have great appeal.

Many domestic and foreign institutions generally believe that the A-share market is expected to continue the upward trend in 2025 and usher in a new round of profit growth cycle.

Goldman Sachs suggests continuing to overweight A-shares and H-shares, expecting the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to rise by 15% and 13% respectively in 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) growth of 7% to 10%. Goldman Sachs' Chief China Equity Strategist, Liu Jingjin, believes that the rise of the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index is mainly due to earnings per share growth and moderate valuation growth.

"Overall, we believe that the policy face forms an important support for the A-share market. From a valuation perspective, the current valuation level of A-shares has returned to around 13 times, but compared with the global stock market valuation, the valuation of A-shares is still very low, so it still has great appeal," said Liu Jingjin.

A few days ago, JPMorgan Asset Management released the "2025 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" report, expecting that the average annual return of Chinese stocks over the next 10 to 15 years will be 7.8% (in US dollars).

Du Meng, Deputy General Manager and Chief Investment Officer of JPMorgan Asset Management China said that from the perspective of industrial development, new quality production capacity is undoubtedly the main driving force of China's future economic growth and the focus of future investment attention. "We will continue to focus on technology industries driven by artificial intelligence, new energy industries, high-end manufacturing industries, and medical and health industries mainly based on innovative drugs," said Du Meng.

Looking forward to the future market, Ni Quansheng, fund manager of JPMorgan Asset Management China, said that the allocation will be based on the judgment of the value of listed companies, while combining future profits, cash flow, asset quality, and valuation levels to find more cost-effective assets.